Someone asked me today if I think Lance will finish on the podium.
Here’s my response.

Regarding Lance, a much more complex issue, I don’t think he’ll make the podium. After today’s stage, he’s in 3rd, which is not all that surprising considering where he was at the end of yesterday. Here are
the standings at the end of today’s time trial:

Alberto Contador, Team Astana
Andy Schleck, Team SaxoBank @ +4:11
Lance, Team Astana @ +5:25
Bradley Wiggins, Team Garmin @+5:36
Andreas Kloden, Team Astana @+5:38
Frank Schleck, Team SaxoBank @+5:59

There are two stages to go in which time can be gained or lost (the final stage does not factor in, unless there’s a gap of 30 seconds or less because time is awarded for sprints, including the finish).

Friday’s stage is 178km, and has a 2nd category climb 16km from the end. What is likely to happen is that the pack will be largely together going to the final climb, then a few people of no consequence will take
off going over the top and try to hang on to win. The problem for them is that 1st and 2nd in the sprinters’ race is only separated by 30 pts, which can be overcome in the last 3 days. So, while those guys will attack, the sprinters’ teams will try to close out the attack – and will likely get that done, which means a field sprint, in which the top 5
places in the race will not change.

Saturday’s stage is the doozie. It has 1 4th category climb, 3 3rd
category climbs, and ends on a climb that is off the scale. This is
where it’s all going to go down. The Schleck brothers are going to
attack Contador mercilessly. Wiggins will try to get Christian vande
Velde (8th place) to help him. Carlos Sastre is the wild card potential
attacker. He’s in 14th, 15:26 back, so he can’t win it, but he might as
well go out fighting, if he can.

So it’s likely that there will be an early attack. It’s possible, but
not a guarantee, that the teams will send some teammates of Contador, the Schlecks, and Wiggins up the road for later use, but because of all those big climbs, they’d have to get a huge (potential race winning) lead in order to be in the right place for the Ventoux, and a gap that big probably won’t be allowed. Lance and Kloden will likely stay with Contador. Then, when they get to the foot of the Ventoux, all hell will probably break loose.

ASchleck needs 4:12 to take over first and the Ventoux is 21.2km long
and steeeep. If Contador wasn’t a good climber, you’d say that ASchleck could wait a while, but he needs as much time as he can get, so he’ll have to go early. He also needs not to blow himself up early and risk falling out of podium contention, though, because he has to know that Lance wants second, and Astana wants the 1-2-3. Lance needs to help Contador, but also defend 3rd place against Wiggins and FSchleck (and to a lesser extent Kloden). Lance says that he hasn’t been able to follow all of the accelerations, and Contador and the Schlecks blew out Kloden the other day. Wiggins just isn’t as good a climber as the Schlecks and Contador – and maybe Lance. But Lance loves the Ventoux. That leaves Contador and the Schlecks again – and maybe Lance. That’s the best case scenario from a fan’s point of view.

So, the Schlecks will be attacking. But Lance could also attack.
Problem there is that if Lance goes, the Schlecks are going to follow,
which could put Contador in trouble. Lance’s role as domestique is to
not help the opposition. If that means sacrificing his place on the
podium, so be it. Now, if Lance is in form, and Kloden is in form, you
might see the three-up Mont Ventoux Astana Time Trial, which would kick ass. That would be one for the ages – three Astanas against two
Schleck brothers and the rest of the peleton just getting slaughtered.
Wow, I’m excited just thinking about the possibility – but it’s not all
that realistic.

Worst case scenario is someone crashing out either tomorrow or before
the Ventoux. Next to that is if ASchleck concedes 1st and rides solely
to defend 2nd place. That could get interesting, though, because there is going to be a fight for 3rd, with Lance, Wiggins, Kloden, and
FSchleck all within 34 seconds of each other (the next guy is about 2
more minutes back). Then you’d see Lance and Kloden, the Schlecks, and Wiggins battling, while Contador is hanging around just behind, staying out of the fray, just not losing time.

I think that, unless he’s been bluffing, Lance’s inability to make the
big accelerations of Contador and the Schlecks will keep him off the
podium. I think FSchleck will finish 3rd, having broken away with
Contador and ASchleck on the Ventoux, while Lance deals with Wiggins.

So, it’ll be:

Contador (who will end up gaining time on the Ventoux, when he rides
away from the Schlecks in the last two kilometers).
Andy Schleck at around 5:15
Frank Schleck at around 7:10
Lance at around 7:25
Then Kloden around 8:00
Wiggins around 8:40.

That’s my top 6.

So, I’ve made my predictions and now they’ve raced 9 stages. Let’s see where I am, shall we?

Rinaldo Noncentini is is 1st place. This is surprising only because he made it through the mountains in first. Really, from what I’ve heard, Astana doesn’t want the jersey yet, so they’re willing to have this guy who has no chance of winning the Tour hold onto it for now. I’ll bet that Noncentini does not finish in the top 10.

Contador (predicted 1st) is in 2nd, 6 seconds back.

Armstrong (didn’t predict top 8 ) is in 3rd, 8 seconds back, but for 3 days was in 2nd, less than one second behind Cancellera. Apparently, Contador attacked Armstrong at the end of stage 7, to take over 2nd place. This has ruffled some feathers in cycling land, but really, if Contador is the team leader (as the team said before the race), he has every right to attack his teammates.

Schleck, Andy (predicted 2nd) is in 9th, 1:49 back. He lost 40 seconds to Contador in the team time trial on stage 4. His brother, Frank, BTW is in 13th place, 2:25 behind the leader.

Evans (predicted 3rd) is in 18th, 3:07 back of Noncentini. Evans lost 2:35 to Contador in the team time trial. Ouch. It will be tough for him to get any significant chunk of that back unless Contador crashes into Armstrong and Leipheimer, as Evans will be a marked man every day.

Sastre (predicted 4th) is in 16th, 2:52 back of Noncentini. Sastre lost 1:37 to Contador in the team time trial. It will also be hard for him to pick up time, unless he can drop Contador, Armstrong, and Leipheimer in the mountains.

Leipheimer (pre 5th) is in 4th, 39 seconds back. Part of the reason he’s there is the team time trial (he’s on Astana with Contador and Armstrong), but he’s also been climbing well. He’s a good time trialist, so normally, I’d say he might move up, but Armstrong is a great time trialist, and Contador is nothing to sneeze at. Maybe an Astana 1-2-3 on the podium? Yikes?

Pereiro, Oscar (pre 6th) dropped out after stage 8, citing fatigue.

Menchov (pre 7th) is in 27th place, 5:02 back of Noncentini. He lost 3 minutes to Contador in the team time trial. he then lost a minute+ in the first few mountain stages.

Fothen (pre 8th) is in 113th place, 59:14 back. No chance for an 8th place finish here. Of course, he’s still got 58 riders behind him. Lost a ton of time in the mountains – 25 minutes on the last stage.

Other news: not surprised that Cavendish has won two stages, but interested that Hushovd is in the green jersey. A Spaniard riding for Euskaltel Euskadi in the mountains jersey is no shock, as all they are good for is climbing, it seems. No danger from him to the overall.

Rest day Monday, then 194.5 kilometers on Tuesday with some category 4 and 5 climbs (the two easiest classifications). It’s Bastille Day Tuesday, so expect a break with a few French riders to go clear. As long as they are no-names, they’ll be allowed to get a huge advantage at one point. Then the sprinters will start to chase. A Frenchman will try desperately to stay clear and get the win, and just may do it.

See you all next time.
-JDE

The Tour starts in Monaco this weekend. This is the text of an email that I just sent out. In case anyone cares.

Okay, having been called out by Fran, and knowing what little I know about pro cycling land this year, I’ll take a stab at the final GC of the Tour.

I can’t come up with 10 contenders, so I’ll just do my top 8.

#8: Markus Fothen, Germany, team Milram. He has no team support – hell, he’s not even tagged as the team leader for this perennial no-show at the Tour team – so the only way he can make the podium is a looong escape. I think he was high up in the best young rider category a couple of years ago.

#7: Denis Menchov, Russia, Rabobank. A consistent top 10 or 20 in the Tour. Seems to always have one colossally bad day toward the end that costs him places. He’s definitely one that the contenders keep an eye on, though.

#6: Oscar Pereiro, Caisse D’Epargne: This is the guy who won the tour by default when Landis was stripped of his title in 2006 (is that the year – no, it must have been 2007. Wait. Lance started winning after Pantani won in 98, so Lance won 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05. Yeah, 06 must have been Pereiro, then Contador when Rasmussen got booted in 07, then Sastre in 08 when Astana wasn’t allowed in.) He can do well. Typically, Alessandro Valverde is the leader for CD’E at the Tour, but he’s not in the race this year. I don’t know why.

#5: Levi Leipheimer, USA, Astana: Levi will be the key domestique for Alberto Contador. I think that he’ll be a strong enough domestique to end up with some good times. I think that Levi, not Lance, is probably the backup GC guy for Astana – or he should be, though he can never win the Tour.

#4: Carlos Sastre, Cervelo Test Team, Spain: The only one of my favorite Spanish climbers to not test positive (yet). Won the Tour last year. Finally. Perennial top 5 finisher.

#3: Cadel Evans, Silence-Lotto, Australia: Can’t win, ever. If the rest of the field crashed, one of the gendarmes would beat Cadel into second place.

#2: Andy Schleck, Saxo Bank (used to be CSC), Luxembourg (sp?) I think: The Schleck brothers will both be in the SB team for the Tour. Andy’s got talent. Serious talent. If Contador wasn’t in it, I’d pick Andy.

#1: Alberto Contador, Astana, Spain: …but Contador is in it, so I have to pick him. FYI: Contador won the Tour de France in 2007, and the Tours of Italy 9Giro d’Italia) and Spain (Vuelta a Espana) in 2008. He’s the 6th (I think. I can’t find the number. It may be less. Only 9 guys have ever won two grand tours in 1 season, including Contador.) guy to win all three grand tours, and no one has ever won them all in the same year. He came damned close. Astana was barred from entering the Tour in 2008, otherwise, Contador would have won 07 and 08. With Brunyll (sp?) driving the car and Levi, Andreas Kloden, and Lance as domestiques and distractions, I don’t know how Contador cannot win – other than a crash.

Sprinter’s Jersey: Mark cavendish, Great Britain, Columbia-HTC
Climber’s Jersey: Sastre. Dark horse Leipheimer, if he leads Contador over all of the high points.
Team: Astana
Young Rider: Anthony Geslin, Francaise des Jeux.

Regarding Lance, all I know is that I do not want him to win. Yeah, it would make a great story if he did, but it would make a mockery of cycling.

in case you missed it on my Facebook page…

So let me get this straight… either the person at the DPW who makes the signs can’t spell, or possibly, someone from the demolition company (which has been on the job for about 3 months) couldn’t be bothered to check the spelling of the street they are working on. Come one!

There are about 10 of these signs all over the city. They are all spelled wrong.

It’s going in the photo blog, too. (more…)

I feel like I may have written about this before, so excuse me if I have.

In my spare time over the past 4 weeks or so, I’ve been doing a little cleaning at my parents’ house. I still have a walk-in closet full of stuff over there. I’ve been promising my dad for years that I would move all of that stuff out when I got my own house. Well, I’ve had a house for a year and a half, and the closet still contains pretty much everything that it did when I moved out.

So, the other night I was cleaning, and I opened this big box – actually, it was a cardboard box designed to look like a wicker suitcase, in fact, it was the sample box from the Tom Wat kit which we had to sell stuf from when I was in Cub Scouts – and in the box was a whole slew of casette tapes. I thought that when we moved into this house, I got rid of my tapes. Alas, not true. So I’m staring down at all of these tapes, probably 150 of them, and I have to decide what to do with them. I decided that I would throw out most, if not all, of the ones that were factory-made albums, mostly because I obviously haven’t listened to then in years and if I do want to, I can get them on CD. Then there was the issue of the mix tapes – ones I made and ones that were made for me. I’ve decided to hold on to those, at least for a while, and to remake the ones that I made as CDs, at least if I actually like them. This requires me to listen to them and, in many cases, make track lists for them. My only functioning cassette player is in my car, so that’s what I’m listening to in the car these days. Soon, though, I’ll have a cassette player in teh basement, and I will be able to listen to them down there while I’m doing stuff.

I started off with a Bill Cosby cassette, made, I think, from an LP that my cousin had. It’s got some funny stuff on it, but it’s not worth saving. On side B, there is only one thing- Parents Just Don’t Understand, by DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince. Remarkably, I still knew most of the words. When that song came on in the car the other day, the MAE knew the words, too.

The second tape I listened to started with a recording off the radio of the WBRU DJ announcing that I’d won the new Del Amitri CD. I still have that one. Then it goes into a couple of Neworder songs. Then, oddly, it’s a recording of me going through the yearbook of my high school girlfriend, making comments about people. There I am going page by page remembering things abut people whom I knew in high school. The tape was made in 1989 or 1990. I have no idea why I made it. It’s mostly boring, with a couple of funny comments. Then the tape changes to a live Squeeze concert taped off the radio. That goes over from side A to side B, and when it stops, the tape goes blank.

Who knows what I’ll find next. It could be interesting.

-Jerome

Today is Superbowl Sunday. The Patriots aren’t in it, so I don’t really care a lot about the game. If I missed it, I wouldn’t be too disappointed.

The best thing about Superbowl Sunday is a little tradition that the MAE and I started a few years back. No matter who is in the game, we have a very special, once-a-year, dinner of foods that are really bad for you. They tend to be appetizers, and they tend to be fried, and they all start out frozen, but they are usually good, at least while you’re eating them.

In the weeks leading up to the day, we start watching the supermarket freezer cases for sales. The rules are, we each get to choose three snacks for the meal. We must share with the other person if they like the snack. And finally, there is no making htings from scratch.

This year, we’ll be having popcorn chicken, potato skins, mozzarella sticks, french fries, and some sort of pastry filled with cheese and spinach (not spanakopita). I know, we’re coming up short one item, but the MAE has decided that she doesn’t need three choices.

So, around game time, we’ll throw everything in the oven, and 20-25 minutes later, we’ll have a feast of previously frozen yumminess. Then, about an hour later, we’ll feel like our stomachs are filled with lead, and we’ll complain for the rest of the evening about how lousy we feel. And at some point while we’re complaining, we’ll have cake (from a box).

We look forward to it every year, and it never fails to disappoint.

Oh, and I will predict a Cardinals win, 28-17. I hate the Steelers. Always have.

-Jerome

The MAE is in the living room watching some craft show on TV, and I’m in the dining room. Usually, she just makes fun of these shows. I don’t know exactly what they’re doing on the show that is holding her attention, but I just heard some woman on TV say, “There’s something so satisfying about cutting a sponge.”

Yeah. Okay. I mean, I don’t remember the last time I cut a sponge, but I guess I’m missing out. I’m going to find some scissors and go get myself some satisfaction!

[potentially offensive language warning for this post]

Friday morning I went to work, parked my car behind the building, and walked around the side to the front door. On the way, I passed a huge tag spraypainted on the side of the building. [That's it there between the two windows] What the fuck?!

I can’t say that I ever was a tagger, but I’ve been known to write my name or leave some other identifying mark (always small) in a place from time to time throughout my life (see the pavement outside 2073, for example). I even think tags are cool sometimes, and can see the artistic side of graffiti and of tags to some extent. So I consider myself somewhat open minded on the whole tagging thing. However, in this case, I’m just pissed off.

My office is in the area of the local arts college in the capital city. Buildings around there get tagged fairly regularly. Sometimes, we know it’s the art school students who are doing it – the school’s security folks have come to our office to discuss it. I take seeing these tags as a fact of life in an urban area, and particularly near the arts college.

Here’s where I draw the line, however. The building that I work in is a historic building, constructed in 1762. That’s 246 years ago for those of you keeping track at home. That’s older than our country. The building was the seat of government of the state for a number of years, until the current state house was constructed. Then it was a state court. Now it’s the home to state offices. It’s listed in the National Register of Historic Places and is in a National Historic Landmark district.

When some mindless fuckhead tagger puts his/her meaningless fuckhead tag [I blurred out the insides of the tag to not give the dickhead the honor or seeing his worthless tag online] on the building in spraypaint, it hurts the building. The only ways to remove the paint are with chemicals or pressure wash, or a combination of both. All of these means damage the soft (by today’s standards) brick, mortar, and brownstone of which the building is constructed. Basically, a little layer of the brick has to come off to get the paint off. It seems like a bad thing to do, and it is, but leaving the tag is not an option, either.

I think it’s generally accepted that taggerrs have no sense of respect for other people’s property. After all, they are basically dirtying other people’s stuff in the name of promoting their own name. But taggers do need to have some respect for those things that belong to all of us. I guess that’s a pipe dream, too. How about respect for actually damaging people’s stuff? That’s what they’re doing to my office building. The most recent dickhead’s tag is not the only one on our building right now, but it’s by far the largest one that’s ever been done and it’s in the most prominent place. Its removal is going to damage the buildng and leave the most visible mark on a building that is important to the history of the city, the state, and the nation.

So, taggers, if you’re reading this (not that you are, but I feel some need to vent regardless), have some concept of the actual damage that you are doing. Practice your art where it won’t actually hurt the substrate. Learn about building materials and what your tags and their removal do to the building materials, and by all means keep your bullshit tags off my historic buildings!

That is all.

-Jerome

The Thought Mill has spawned a new site.

For 2009, I’ve decided to try to take 1 photo per day and post it online. I think I’m going to pick one subject and take 5 shots, and just post the best one. Sometimes, they’ll be good, sometimes, they’ll suck. The object is to not have me sitting at my computer editing photos for the blog, it’s just to get me to learn to use my camera better, to make better shooting decisions, and to see what happens when I don’t rely on the “take-a-million-shots-one’s-bound-to-be-good” strategy.

You can see the blog at http://picasaweb.google.com/jemidy. I’ll put it in the blogroll over there on the left. I think you can get an RSS feed from the site, but I haven’t figured out how yet.

Happy New Year!

-Jerome

I find myself inspired by the Conman’s Christmas post.

I love Christmas. I’ve always loved it. I love all of the traditions that my family has, I love the decorations, shopping, the music, the food, the whole shebang.

Let’s start with the shopping. The other day, I was out shopping and was talking to the MAE on the phone. She wanted me to come home early, but I told her that I still had things to get for her. She said that I didn’t need to get her anything. I responded that it’s all about the thrill of the chase. That was a spur of the moment response, but the more I think about it, the more true it is. Finding the right present(s) for someone is a great feeling. Having that person be really be happy, and even better, surprised and happy, when they open the gift is the best. I typically drive all over creation looking for the right gifts. I often visit the same places multiple times, once for reconnaissance, then again to purchase. I go into a lot of stores that I don’t visit at any other time of year. Of course, it’s all done against the clock. Inevitably, I finish my shopping on the 23rd. This year, because of the weather and stuff, it was the 24th, but I only got one present that day.

Decorations: I love Christmas trees. When I was a kid, we had a fake tree. Then, at some point, we switched over to a real one. I like the real tree much better. My mom and I used to go out to find the perfect tree every year, and every year, we were pretty sure that we did it. Then, the decorating of the tree began. My mom is one who buys Christmas ornaments whenever she sees one that she likes, almost every time we ever went on vacation, and without any discernable theme behind the design. Our tree was always a hodgepodge of glass balls old and new, things I made in school, wooden things, and other random wierd ones. We always had colored lights. I don’t think we ever had blinking lights. I used to sometimes just lay on the couch in front of the lit tree, and just stare at it, sometimes falling asleep in front of it. It was a nice, peaceful feeling. There was also a lot of other Chistmas stuff throughout the house: candles, figurines, stockings, etc. But we never really did outside stuff. At some point probably in the 90s, my mom finally convinced my dad to let her put a lit garland on the light pole in the front yard. That was pretty much the extent of the exterior expression of our Christmas spirit.

The MAE and I have had a tree together for 5 years now. While we always go out looking for the perfect tree, this year, like at least one other, we chose a tree that is far from perfect. The reasoning: no one else is going to pick this tree, so we save it from going to the chipper without ever being decorated. I guess we’re like Charlie Brown in that regard. This year’s tree is thin and has significant sparse spots. With all of the ornaments and lights on, though, it doesn’t look bad. At least not bad enough that I don’t like it. I’ve ended up with a bunch of ornaments from my mom, and some from my grandmother. I really enjoy seeing some of those on the tree. We really don’t even have to buy new ornaments, but we do on occasion, anyway.

This year, our house was surrounded by houses with exterior lights. For the first time, I felt the pressure to do some exterior decorating. The MAE and I almost did put up some exterior lights, but we never came to a conclusion on what we wanted the scheme to be. We still haven’t come to a conclusion, so we haven’t bought lights on clearance, either. Looks like we won’t be doing exterior decor next year, either.

Tradition: Christmas eve in my family was always spent at my grandparents’ (mom’s side) house. I used to really look forward to it. After a while, decorating and hosting became too much for my grandmother to have to do, so the plan was to not go to her house. I was probably about 27 when this happened. I basically staged a rebellion, saying that I was going there decorations or not, regardless of whether or not anyone else went. My grandmother got pressured into hosting, but didn’t do the usual big spread of food or anything. My parents went, and I think my aunt and uncle came over. That was enough to make me happy. THe next year, we ended the Christmas eve tradition. It was snowing that night. I walked 3 miles (one way) through the city, in the snow, around midnight, to see the city’s light display that I used to see every year on the way home from gram & gramp’s house. That allowed me to keep at least some of the tradition alive.

Christmas day usually was at my house when I was young, but eventually, it sometimes moved to my Uncle Ray’s house. Like anyone else, I dreaed leaving my new gifts for hours on Christmas day. Then, at some point, of course, I had to start going to my girlfriend’s house for at least part of the day, if not for the meal. Sometimes, that was fine, sometimes, I dreaded it. At this point, as long as I get to spend some time at home on Christmas, I don’t really care about leaving the house. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that it’s going to happen, and going somewhere is less work than hosting.

The Conman made a good point about sharing Christmas with someone special. Spending the holidays with the MAE is fantastic. I really enjoy buying gifts for her and watching her open them on Christmas morning. I enjoy spending time decorating with her. I enjoy watching Elf every year with her, even if she dreads it. This year was the first year that the CPE participated in Christmas. He liked the paper, and he liked the gifts, but I’m not sure that he made the connection that he needs to unwrap the present to get to the gifts. It’s definitely a different feeling having Christmas with him. We’re now looking forward to next year, when he’ll probably have an idea of how Christmas works (he’ll be just over 2 years old at that point), and he’ll probably be excited about it. That should be interesting. I really don’t know what to expect. I hope he enjoys Christmas as much as I do.

-the JDE